I have been a bit quite of late mainly due to the lack of movement in my account but everything kicked off this week. Equities have all moved lower and my four short positions on the FTSE which I scaled into are now running nicely into profit. I have moved all stop losses to break even and hopefully these have sufficient space to breath.

Over the past few weeks I have been reading various extreme views on where the FTSE will go from here. On the lower end of the scale one article stated the FTSE would pass the March 17th lows and trend down to 4000. Other views see a flat year ending but I personally think a 6000 finish is about right.

At the moment the downward momentum is gaining pace with stocks unable to hold gains and I’m waiting very patiently for the next big drop. That seems to be the major lesson I have slowly learned this year, its all about the waiting. I think an imminent retracement to 5350 is inevitable after trying the highs. Once these lows come I will be switching to buying small amounts and follow the trend back to 5700. Obviously I’m not too sure when this will happen but inflation, oil and commodities are all helping my case. Once the ECB hikes its interest rates I think a sell off will occur and US stocks will panic thinking the Fed strategy may be flawed. The perfect storm.

On banks I have eased my way into AIB at 11.00 for a small amount. Again the strategy is to increment the shares throughout the year till I have completed my total allocation. This is a three year minimum term proposal with five being my optimum get out. However should the share hit 14.00 I would sell and wait for the retracement? I expect AIB to hit 8.00 as a low and 14.00 as a high.

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