At present I’m re-evaluating my trading position. We have had heavy selling and I think a bounce is imminent. This does not in any way change my long term bearish view and I expect new lows but not yet.

I’m now looking to buy FTSE 100 on a short term at the November lows. I think this will provide good support. This will be quick in and out. On gold I’m thinking of going short at $1030 should we reach that. I think the recent jump in gold is valid but once equities get a shot in the arm gold will lose its lustre.

Entry: 3600 – 3800 FTSE (June Contracts)
Exit: 4000
Stop (Mental): 3500
Point Size: 10 Euro ( 2.5 x 4)
Estimated Return: 2000

Nearly 120,000 people marched yesterday in Dublin. Many people were protesting at the levy while others voiced their dissatisfaction with the government. Whatever the personal reason for protesting what inspires me is that Irish people have once again regained their voice.

For many years during the economic boom apathy, singularity and disinterest in others was as popular as new cars and second houses. Now with less and more job losses the middle class have bonded in unity to display its outrage at a government that is out of touch and out of favour with its citizens.

I’m encouraged that maybe after we get out of this recession we may have the fragments of what was once an amazing and welcoming country. Whilst most of the tradition has been replaced with apartments and chique pubs the underlying foundations are still there.

When all is said and done I’m optimistic that we will emerge stronger, bigger and hopefully more honest and less focused on the riches that are now our ruin. Nouveau riche no matter where or whom is always vulgar as the driving emotion is exhibitionism.

Now that we have gone through that phase maybe we can focus on becoming an understanding, compassionate and caring nation like the decades of welcoming Irish that preceded us. Saturday’s march is hopefully the early sign of a developing nation that now wants to regain control after years of corruption and mismanagement.

I for one am very optimistic.

Total Profit Week: 37.00
Account Total : 10,679.05

With volume low today on the Dow the push lower was more a case of no buyers rather that lots of sellers. The panic selling that was expected never occurred and the Dow was simply pushed lower on weak volume.

The FTSE held well at 4000 and briefly scouted below before coming back to settle at 4025. Tomorrow Obama outlines his housing solution and we will see how markets react. I’m confident of a return to 4200 on the FTSE as I think this current drop lacks the real conviction to drive us lower. It’s going to be a testing week but unless someone releases dire news I see us heading back into the trading range.

Total Profit Week: 943.50
Account Total : 10,642.05

Last night was another example of take profits when you can. I am certain that the FTSE 100 will break the 4000 barrier and have been building up a substantial short on this expectation. Last night I went from +500 Euro to a loss of -1000 in minutes. My reasoning for not taking profits was because I have a nasty habit of ill timed exits. Waiting till my exit point has come was one of my new years resolutions and so I’m happy I’m doing it. On the other hand I would be happier with 500 quid in my pocket.

The reason for the rapid market move was the government’s announcement to subsidise troubled homeowners mortgages. This caused the S&P to do a nasty U turn and jump 3% from heavy losses. The DOW came back from -200 to break even. Today’s session will tell if the bulls have legs but as we are maintaining the trading range it will be hard to see us break this unless we get further announcements.

I will be incrementally adding to my existing short and this rally could reach 4400 before it’s finished. I’m happy with my current position and because I have this though through I believe its a good trade. My stop is at 4700 and is very wide. As I increase my position I will be taking small profits on those shorts opened at lower levels, this should mean I can get better entry point but maintain the position size.

I hope no one was caught out in the squeeze. Risk management and well placed stops

So what did you make of the “The Bernanke & Geithner Show”. From my point of view it was a little under whelming and they portrayed themselves badly. Tim Geithner did come across a little better towards the end but still the confidence wasn’t there. As for big Ben Bernanke he seemed, stressed (which I understand), unprepared, nervous and jittery. His answers weren’t confident and he lacked conviction.

For these and many more obvious reasons like the lack of detail the markets roundly sold off. The DOW ended -380 down just off the lows of the session while the NASDAQ ended down -66 points. Generally I think there is agreement that this show gets the thumbs down. It will be interesting to see do the markets perk back up or continue down tomorrow.

Total Profit Week: 78.00
Account Total : 9,698.55